Temporal trends and factors associted with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Northeastern Brazil (2015-2024)

Abstract

Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) is a hematologic malignancy characterized by the uncontrolled proliferation of immature lymphoblasts in the bone marrow, representing the most common type of cancer in childhood. In Brazil, its distribution shows regional disparities, with limited consolidated data on the epidemiological profile in the Northeast. This study aimed to analyze temporal trends and associated factors of ALL in the Brazilian Northeast between 2015 and 2024, through descriptive and inferential analysis based on secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Health Information System for Primary Care (SISAB). A total of 389 records were identified during the period, with a balanced distribution between sexes (49.36% female; 50.64% male) and age groups (50.64% aged 0–17; 49.36% aged 18 or older). Poisson regression analysis revealed no statistically significant associations between ALL occurrence and the variables studied (p = 0.900). However, a significant upward trend in annual records was observed, with an annual percent change (APC) of 45.12% (95% CI: 19.51–76.23; p = 0.005), increasing from one case in 2015 to sixty-eight in 2024. The observed growth may reflect both improvements in epidemiological surveillance and the informatization of the Unified Health System (SUS) and a real rise in incidence related to environmental and socioeconomic factors. The findings highlight ALL as a major public health concern in the Northeast, demanding strategies focused on early detection, strengthening hospital infrastructure, and standardizing therapeutic protocols.